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Investigation · Abortion Policy & Child Welfare

Abortion Politics: Persuasion, Not Provision

After Dobbs, Republican-controlled states poured new money into talking women out of abortions. The documented record shows what happened to the funding that would have helped them — and their children — once the baby was born.

What this page is

This page is about abortion policy — specifically, what the politicians who wrote and passed these laws did next, in their own budgets and their own votes. Every figure below comes from a state budget document, a roll-call vote, a court record, or a federal agency report. The pattern it shows: the rhetoric of "protecting life" is not matched by the funding record for supporting people once that life needs food, healthcare, and a home.

By Brad Schrunk Sourced to state budgets, roll-call votes, CBO scores, and court records
The Claim

They said this was about the unborn.

Every abortion ban enacted since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022 was defended in the same language: this is about protecting life. That's a claim with a testable prediction attached to it. If the goal is a child's life and welfare — not merely the act of childbirth — the same states should show a parallel commitment to that child's health, food, housing, and care after birth.

They don't. The record below isn't an argument about motive. It's a side-by-side of what got funded and what got refused, in the same legislative sessions, often in the same bills.

How to read this page

Every figure here is tied to a state budget document, a named roll-call vote, a court filing, or a federal agency report — not a meme, not a talking point. Where the record is mixed rather than absolute, this page says so. Don't believe it because it's angry. Check it because it's sourced.

The Federal Record

The clearest exhibit: what happened to the Child Tax Credit

In 2021, an expanded Child Tax Credit briefly did what "pro-family" policy is supposed to do.

5.2%
CHILD POVERTY RATE, 2021 — a record low, per the U.S. Census Bureau's Supplemental Poverty Measure
12.4%
CHILD POVERTY RATE, 2022 — after the credit expired. The largest one-year increase on record.
48–44
SENATE VOTE, AUG. 1, 2024 — to revive a modest version of the credit. It failed.

The 2021 expansion — larger payments, full refundability, monthly checks — came out of the American Rescue Plan. Columbia University's Center on Poverty and Social Policy found the credit alone cut child poverty by 43 percent that year. When it expired, child poverty didn't drift upward. It nearly doubled, in the sharpest single-year jump the Supplemental Poverty Measure has ever recorded.

In August 2024, the Senate had a chance to bring a scaled-back version back: the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act, which had already passed the House 357–70. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimated it would lift about 400,000 children out of poverty and reach 16 million more. It failed on a procedural vote, 48–44. Only three Republicans crossed over to support it: Josh Hawley of Missouri, Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma, and Rick Scott of Florida.

H.R. 7024, Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act118th Congress
House passage357–70, Jan. 31, 2024
Senate cloture vote48–44, Aug. 1, 2024 (Record Vote No. 230)
Sourcecongress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7024

Three years later, the pattern repeated at larger scale. The 2025 budget reconciliation law — the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" — cut an estimated $863 billion from Medicaid and $295 billion from SNAP over ten years, more than $1 trillion combined, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The Commonwealth Fund's analysis of CBO's scoring puts the number of people who would lose health coverage at roughly 10.9 million, a figure that climbs toward 16 million once the expiration of enhanced ACA premium tax credits is factored in.

Confirmed

The federal voting record is unambiguous: a policy that measurably reduced child poverty was allowed to lapse, a bipartisan attempt to partially restore it was blocked largely along party lines, and the following major budget bill cut over $1 trillion more from the programs low-income families with children rely on.

The State Record

Where the money actually went

Every state that banned abortion after Dobbs also funds "crisis pregnancy centers" — facilities that counsel women against abortion. That funding didn't just continue. In several states it was written into the same bill as the ban, and increased sharply.

StateAnti-Abortion Counseling FundingACA Medicaid Expansion
Texas~$100M (2021) → ~$140M (2024–25 biennium)Not expanded
Florida5x increase to $25M/year, written into the six-week ban bill (SB 300, 2023)Not expanded
Oklahoma6x increase to $18M (SB 1135, 2024)Expanded
TennesseeFrom roughly $283,000 to $20M (FY2024 budget)Not expanded
MississippiTax credit tripled to $10M (2023)Not expanded
MissouriFrom $4.3M to $10.3M in TANF fundsExpanded
LouisianaRestructured 2024 as the "Pregnancy and Baby Care Initiative"Expanded
AlabamaState-funded CPC networkNot expanded

Nationally, states have directed more than a billion dollars to these centers since 1995, with roughly $489 million appropriated in just the two years after Dobbs, according to Equity Forward's tracking, reported by The 19th and CBS News. These centers are not medical providers. They do not offer prenatal care, delivery, pediatric coverage, or cash assistance. Their function is counseling a woman toward carrying a pregnancy to term — full stop.

Nuanced — worth stating precisely

Not every ban state refused every form of postnatal support. Most of the states examined here did adopt the federal option to extend postpartum Medicaid coverage from 60 days to a full year — real, if modest, medical follow-through for new mothers. Idaho, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Missouri, and Oklahoma have expanded ACA Medicaid outright. The fair claim isn't that these states did nothing. It's that they funded persuasion first and generously, while the biggest lever for ongoing care — full Medicaid expansion — remains refused in Texas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama.

The Outcomes

What "protecting life" looks like in the data

If persuasion funding without provision funding has a cost, it should show up in the numbers for mothers and infants who are already born. It does.

9.7
MISSISSIPPI INFANT DEATHS PER 1,000 LIVE BIRTHS, 2024 — highest of any state, per March of Dimes
42.1
TENNESSEE MATERNAL DEATHS PER 100,000, 2019–2023 — highest in the nation, per CDC data via USAFacts
10.3
MISSISSIPPI UNDER-5 DEATHS PER 1,000 — nearly triple Massachusetts's 3.8, per the Commonwealth Fund

Texas offers the clearest picture of what happens to children after they're born into a system this state has chosen not to fund. Its foster care system has been under federal court supervision since 2015. U.S. District Judge Janis Graham Jack's monitors documented children sleeping in state offices, hotels, and churches for lack of placements — nearly 300 in a single month in one reporting period, per the Texas Tribune. The state was held in contempt of court and fought the oversight for years rather than fix the underlying capacity problem.

Association, not proven causation

These states rank worst in the nation on infant and maternal mortality, and the gap widened in the years after their bans took effect. The cited sources establish the correlation and the ranking. They do not establish that the abortion ban itself caused the mortality increase — multiple factors (rural hospital closures, Medicaid refusal, poverty rates) run alongside the ban in the same states. That's stated plainly here rather than implied.

Where the Wedge Came From

It wasn't always about abortion

Historian Randall Balmer's research complicates the standard story that the Religious Right mobilized in immediate reaction to Roe v. Wade in 1973. The documented timeline says otherwise.

In 1971 — two years before Roe — the Southern Baptist Convention passed a resolution urging its members to work for laws allowing abortion in cases including rape, incest, severe fetal deformity, and risk to the mother's health. It reaffirmed that position in 1974, calling it "a middle ground between the extreme of abortion on demand and the opposite extreme of all abortion as murder." The nation's largest evangelical denomination was not yet the institution it would become on this issue.

Southern Baptist Convention Resolution on Abortion1971, reaffirmed 1974
Sourcesbc.net/resource-library/resolutions
Archivejohnstonsarchive.net/baptist/sbcabres.html

What changed the calculus, according to Balmer, was a 1976 IRS decision to revoke the tax-exempt status of Bob Jones University over its policy of racial segregation. Organizing white evangelical voters around defending segregated Christian schools was a political dead end. Abortion wasn't.

"What galvanized the Christian community was not abortion, [but] the attempt on the part of the IRS to rescind the tax-exempt status of Bob Jones University." — Paul Weyrich, co-founder of the Moral Majority
"I sat in the non-smoke-filled back room with the Moral Majority, and I frankly do not remember abortion ever being mentioned as a reason why we ought to do something." — Ed Dobson, Moral Majority co-founder
Documented, but contested

Balmer's account is built on on-record statements from the movement's own architects and is widely cited in academic literature. It is not, however, unanimously accepted — some conservative historians point out that anti-Roe organizing was already underway before the 1978 IRS rules were formalized, and argue Balmer overstates the segregation fight's causal weight relative to abortion itself. Both the quotes and the dispute are presented here; readers can weigh them against the primary sources linked.

Conclusion

The pattern, stated plainly

A state can fund a program that talks a woman out of an abortion and, in the same budget cycle, refuse the Medicaid expansion that would help her and the resulting child for years afterward. Both of those are choices. Only one of them requires ongoing money.

That's the whole pattern, and it doesn't require guessing at anyone's motives to see it. The bills are public. The votes are on the record. The budgets are posted online. Persuasion got funded generously and immediately. Provision got funded selectively, partially, or not at all — and where it didn't, the outcomes for mothers and children are measurably the worst in the country.

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Don't believe me.

Every figure on this page traces to a state budget document, a roll-call vote, a court record, or a federal agency report. Follow the links. Read the primary sources. Reach your own conclusion.

Check it. — Brad Schrunk

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